Steel Products Prices North America

March Apparent Steel Supply Jumps to 14-Month High

May 20, 2021

March apparent steel supply rose nearly 1.5 million tons from February’s dip, now at 8.96 million net tons, according to the latest U.S. Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute data. This is the highest supply level seen since January 2020’s 9.52 million tons. March also marks the largest month-over-month increase in supply seen in 11 years, going back to March 2010 when supply jumped 22.6% or 1.50 million tons. Aside from the February 2020 slip, apparent supply has increased each month since April 2020. Recall that April and May of 2020 were the two lowest levels seen in the last 10 years at 6.53 million tons and 6.60 million tons, respectively. March supply is up 327,000 tons compared to the same month in 2020.

Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then deducting total U.S. steel exports.

March apparent supply rose by 3.8% compared to the same month one year ago when supply was 8.63 million tons. This increase was due to a 270,000-ton increase in finished imports and a 150,000-ton increase in domestic shipments, slightly negated by a 90,000-ton increase in exports.

The net trade balance between U.S. steel imports and exports rose to a surplus of 1.52 million tons imported in March, up 24.1% from the previous month and up 43.6% from one year prior. Finished steel imports accounted for 20.1% of apparent steel supply in March, up from 19.3% in February, and up from 17.7% one year ago.

Compared to February when apparent supply was 7.51 million tons, March supply jumped by 1.45 million tons or 19.3%. This increase was primarily due to a 1.22-million-ton rise in domestic shipments, followed by a 347,000-ton increase in finished imports, both of which were partially negated by a 113,000-ton increase in exports.

The figure below shows year-to-date averages for each statistic over the last five years. 2021 apparent supply remains significantly lower compared to the monthly averages of all previous years shown.

To see an interactive graphic of our Apparent Steel Supply history (example shown below), visit the Apparent Steel Supply page in the Analysis section of the SMU website. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

By Brett Linton, Brett@SteelMarketUpdate.com

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.