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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    The thought is we could well see a pull-back of the Section 232 tariffs by the end of the year. Steel industry executives seem to be leaning in that direction (even though they are lobbying to keep the 232 tariffs) and talking about what is next for the industry. The topic most likely to be moved to the forefront, especially during the Biden administration, is the environment and how to remove carbon emissions from the steelmaking process.

    You may have noticed steel mill CEOs speaking about decarbonization during earnings conference calls and press conferences. Lourenco Goncalves of Cleveland-Cliffs, David Burritt of U.S. Steel, virtually all of the U.S. steel mills are talking about cutting emissions. They are also talking about how the U.S. steel mills are already the lowest polluting steel mills in the world.

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    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.