SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Hits All-Time High

SMU’s steel buyers’ sentiment index has hit its highest point ever – surpassing even the euphoria ahead of the unveiling of Section 232 tariffs and quotas in the first quarter of 2018. Stratospheric price gains, the potential for Section 232 to be removed from the EU by December, and a raft of new capacity coming online in North America has done nothing to dampen the post-pandemic cheer. While inflation fears are percolating through some corners of the market, most steel buyers remain convinced that unprecedented market strength in the first half of 2021 will continue into the second half. Could sentiment breach +80 if an infrastructure bill – decades overdue – actually happens?

SMU asks steel buyers every two weeks how they view their company’s chances for success in the current environment and how they view their prospects three to six months in the future. SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index stands +79 this week, up from +72 two weeks ago and narrowly besting the previous high of +78 in mid-January 2018. SMU’s Future Sentiment Index jumped to +69, up from +63 two weeks ago and marking the highest point since +77 in early February 2018. Both indices have been in the +60s and +70s for most of the year–a massive recovery from the negative territory charted in the second quarter of 2020 following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.