SMU Data and Models

SMU Sentiment Indices Rose Ahead of UAW Strike

Written by Ethan Bernard

September 15, 2023

SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices both ticked up this week before the United Auto Workers (UAW) union strike was declared, based on our most recent survey data.

Every other week we poll steel buyers about sentiment. The Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices measure how steel buyers feel about their company’s chances of success in the current market, as well as three to six months down the road. We have historical data going back to 2008. Check our interactive graphing tool here.

SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index stood at +56 this week, up slightly from +55 two weeks earlier (Fig. 1). Recall that the survey results were compiled before the UAW officially went on strike. At our next market check two weeks from now we’ll see the impact of the strike on current sentiment.

SMU’s Future Buyers Sentiment Index measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future. This week, the index rose to +71 from +66 two weeks ago (Fig. 2). This marks the second time within a month the index has cracked +70. However, we will also see the effect of the strike on future sentiment two weeks from now.

Measured as a three-month moving average, the Current Sentiment 3MMA slipped to +59.33 vs. +60.00 at the last market check. (Fig. 3). 

This week’s Future Sentiment 3MMA increased to +65.67 from +64.33 two weeks prior (Fig. 4).

What SMU Respondents Had to Say:

“We continue to gain market share and take full advantage of service centers lowering pricing week after week after week.”

“Order book is solid so far four months out.”

“We hope to continue with stable demand.”

“(Confident about next three to six months) as long as Infrastructure monies flow.”

“Spot buyers have pulled back due to auto strike negativity.”

About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior.

Positive readings run from +10 to +100. A positive reading means the meter on the right-hand side of our home page will fall in the green area indicating optimistic sentiment. Negative readings run from -10 to -100. They result in the meter on our homepage trending into the red, indicating pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace. Sentiment is measured via SMU surveys twice per month.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

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