Steel Products

SMU Survey: Current Buyers Sentiment Slips, Future Level

October 13, 2023

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers Sentiment Index edged down this week while the future index remained flat, based on our most recent survey data.

Every other week we poll steel buyers about sentiment. The Steel Buyers Sentiment Indices measure how steel buyers feel about their company’s chances of success in the current market, as well as three to six months down the road. We have historical data going back to 2008. Check our interactive graphing tool here.

SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index was at +57 this week, down four points from +61 two weeks earlier (Figure 1). The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike does not seem to have hampered current sentiment as it stood at +56 on Sept. 14 on the eve of the work stoppage, but it has kept it subdued.

SMU’s Future Buyers Sentiment Index measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future. This week, the index stood at +74, even with the previous market check (Figure 2). Future sentiment has been running above current sentiment since the beginning of August.

Measured as a three-month moving average, the Current Sentiment 3MMA fell slightly to +57.67 vs. +58.83 two weeks prior. (Figure 3).

This week’s Future Sentiment 3MMA increased to +69.50 from +67.83 at the previous market check (Figure 4).

What SMU Respondents Had to Say:

“Large buyers/resellers… not making intelligent decisions on selling price.”

“We started to have problems with imports, due to their low prices while our orders have fallen.”

“We could have logistics problems with the war in Israel.”

“Shipments going well this month as we believe inventories are low.”

About the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior.

Positive readings run from +10 to +100. A positive reading means the meter on the right-hand side of our home page will fall in the green area indicating optimistic sentiment. Negative readings run from -10 to -100. They result in the meter on our homepage trending into the red, indicating pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace. Sentiment is measured via SMU surveys twice per month.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is a reporter and editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.