Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Ethan Bernard
October 29, 2023
The first rule of Steel 101 is that you’re free to talk about Steel 101. We actually encourage it. Last week on Tuesday and Wednesday, SMU’s Steel 101 was held in Mt. Pleasant, S.C. For those in the know, that’s right outside of Charleston and a stone’s throw from Nucor Steel Berkeley (more on that later).
We had 50+ attendees converge on the Hyatt Place Mount Pleasant Town Centre. Hailing from all over North America, and even as far away as Santiago, Chile, the diverse group represented all areas of the steel industry. There were 20-year veterans who were changing roles and wanted to learn about a different aspect of the market. There were also newbies in areas like sales and marketing who wanted to familiarize themselves with all things steel in an easygoing and welcoming environment.
In the Classroom
As many of you know, the chalkboard and white board of yesterday have given way to the PowerPoint presentation of today. Nestled comfortably in a conference room, our instructors took the students on the entire life-cycle of steel: from raw materials like scrap all the way to downstream applications like automotive—and everything in between.

Questions were encouraged, and an interactive dialogue prevailed. Whether it was the difference between an electric-arc furnace (EAF) and a blast furnace (BF), different grades of steel, or the intricacies of steel pricing, there was always enough time to meet the students where they were. And, luckily, another snack/coffee break was always lurking around the corner to space out the learning.
Beyond the snacks, we held a happy hour and meals where attendees could mingle and get to know each other. Perhaps share a business card or LinkedIn invite. And maybe even have a little fun in the process.
At the Mill
Definitely a major highlight of the course was our guided tour of the Nucor Steel Berkeley, which produces sheet and structural products. A quick 30-minute bus ride, and we were there. After donning our PPE, listening to a safety talk, and eating some Jersey Mike’s subs for lunch, we were ready to go.

Nucor metallurgists split us up into groups of 10 and took us on a two-hour guided tour. Workers explained to us the nature of their jobs as they took us up stairs, across hot rolling lines, and into pulpits. All the theoretical knowledge we learned in class turned real.
It’s one thing to see a PowerPoint slide but another to be in the pulpit and to stare out the window as an EAF gets charged. Nothing quite prepares you for the sight of tons of molten metal. A vacuum degasser might not sound impressive until you see one being used in front of you.
A huge thank you to all the Nucor staff who made this awesome experience possible!
A Wealth of Knowledge
I would be remiss if I didn’t give a formal shout out to our amazing instructors. Chuck McDaniels, Mario Briccetti, and Roger Walburn (pictured above from left to right, with me second to the right). Acquainted with just about every facet of the industry, they possess a wealth of knowledge, and a passion for sharing it. It was a great honor to share the podium with them.

I merely provided an introduction and a snapshot of current market conditions at the end of the course. They gave an in-depth tour of steel fundamentals. And they tailored it to the needs of the students.
We typically hold a live Steel 101 twice a year, once in the fall and once in the spring. Our spring Steel 101 is still in the planning stage. Stay tuned for more details. We hope some of you will be able to join us!
And if you do go this spring, a reminder (as I reminded those at Steel 101 last week) on attire for the tour. No open-toed shoes, and keep those ankles covered, folks! This is about safety.

Ethan Bernard
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Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.

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Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

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I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

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I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

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We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?