Final Thoughts

Final thoughts
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
May 30, 2024
We have highlighted a few significant moments in steel history in our last few Final Thoughts crosswords. This week we decided to dedicate the entire crossword to it.
The steel industry in the US has a long and storied past. Business cycles go up and down. Mills, companies, they rise and fall, and sometimes rise again. Change is the nature of the game. But it always goes in one direction: forward.
Below are some famous steel mills and companies that no longer exist, but made a lasting impact on the steel landscape, as well the history of this country in general.
While this week we took a look back, our final crossword next week will be forward-looking. And we’re confident that our readers will be some of the people shaping that future. On the heels of next week will be our Steel 101 course on June 11-12 in Fort Wayne, Ind. The course includes a tour of SDI Butler, an EAF sheet mill. If you want to learn more about steelmaking or market fundamentals, this is the course for you.
Crossword
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Brett Linton
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Ethan Bernard
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Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?

Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.