Steel Markets
US apparent steel supply retreats in June
Written by Brett Linton
August 9, 2024
After nearing a two-year high in May, the volume of finished steel entering the US market (referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’) receded in June, according to SMU’s latest analysis of data from the Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Following a strong three months, apparent supply shrunk 9% from May to 8.11 million short tons (st) to June. This 784,000-st reduction is one of the largest monthly declines in over two years. Before June, supply had grown in May to reach the highest level recorded since August 2022. We calculate apparent supply by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then deduct total US steel exports.
Trends
Calculating supply levels on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis can smooth out the month-to-month variability to better highlight long-term trends. After reaching an 11-month high in May, the 3MMA through June eased to 8.55 million st. Compare this to the 2023 monthly supply average of 8.49 million st and the 2022 average of 8.83 million st. Supply on a 3MMA basis has generally trended downward over the past few years, following the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st.
Looking at the past four months, June had the lowest monthly apparent supply rate. The decline from May to June was primarily due to a 517,000-st (-23%) drop in finished imports, combined with a 279,000-st (-4%) decrease in domestic mill shipments.
Figure 4 shows year-to-date (YTD) monthly averages for each statistic over the last four years. The average monthly supply level for the first half of 2024 now stands at 8.46 million st, 3% below last year. 2023 holds the highest YTD monthly average in our recent history at 8.68 million st. Over this time we have seen consistent growth in finished imports, while domestic shipments and total exports have fluctuated.
For an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Brett Linton
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