Overseas
September 20, 2024
Written by David Schollaert
The price gap between US cold-rolled (CR) coil and offshore product widened this week as stateside tags inched up. The premium has been steadily increasing after falling to a 10-month low in late July.
Domestic CR coil tags remain higher than offshore prices on a landed basis. US prices moved higher week on week (w/w), while offshore tags were mostly down.
Commerce is amending the anti-dumping duties on corrosion-resistant steel products from Taiwan. The agency is currently conducting an annual administrative review of the AD order. It is considering the year ended June 30, 2024. In its preliminary results, Commerce set weighted-average dumping margins of 3.54% for Prosperity Tieh Enterprises, 20.73% for Sheng Yu Steel Co., and 5.92% for Great Grandeul Steel Co. (Samoa).
The US Department of Commerce has adjusted anti-dumping duties on imports of hot-rolled flat steel products from Japan. The adjustment has lowered duties for one company but raised them for others. Commerce made the adjustments in the final results of an administrative review of the year ended Sept. 30, 2024. The agency set a final weighted-average dumping margin of 13.96% for Nippon Steel companies. This is lower than the company’s previous rate of 29.7%.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts flat steel demand in 2026, as contraction in China and disruption in the Gulf region offset growth in India and other markets, including the US. Global demand is expected to rise slightly in 2027. The Brussels-based association’s Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2026 pegs global steel demand at 1,722 million metric tons (mt), essentially unchanged from 2025. For 2027, worldsteel forecasts 1.7% growth to 1,752 million mt. “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected,” commented Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee. “Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%. Almost the whole of that revision is a China story,” Calcerrada added.
The Department of Commerce is adjusting the countervailing duties (CVDs) on imports of hot-rolled steel flat products from two South Korean producers. The agency released the final results of its administrative review for calendar year 2023, finding a lower rate for Hyundai but a higher rate for POSCO. Tariff and trade issues have led South Korea to overtake Canada this year as the largest foreign supplier of HR.