SMU Data and Models

SMU's September at a glance
Written by Brett Linton
October 3, 2024
SMU’s monthly review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. This latest report includes data updated through Sept. 30.
Prices of sheet and plate steel showed little movement in September, as buyers reported lackluster demand, high inventories, and caution related to the upcoming election. Sheet mills attempted to raise prices via multiple increases but failed to gain much traction.
The SMU Price Momentum Indicator on sheet was adjusted from higher to neutral in the first week of the month, indicating no clear direction for prices in the short term. Our Price Momentum Indicator for plate remains as it has been since April, pointing lower.
September scrap prices were sideways to down from August, easing as much as $8 per gross ton for some products. Buyers are uncertain about what prices could do in October.
We saw a dip in Steel Buyers’ Sentiment in the middle of September, but it mostly recovered by the end of the month. Our Future and Current Buyers’ Sentiment Indices indicate that buyers remain optimistic about their companies’ chances of success now and in the future.
Steel mill lead times eased slightly through the month and remain near some of the shortest levels recorded in some time. The percentage of buyers reporting that mills were willing to negotiate on new orders edged lower from August to September but remains relatively strong.
See the chart below for other key metrics for September. Historical charts can be found here on our website.


Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.