Ferrous Scrap

October scrap tags inch up, market past bottom?

Written by Ethan Bernard

October 17, 2024

Scrap prices ticked up in October outside of Chicago and Detroit, scrap sources told SMU.

“There is no doubt in my mind that we are past the bottom of this year’s scrap market at this point,” one scrap source said. “Whether we move higher in November or have to wait until December is the question.”

A second source said he forecast that if November goes sideways, December will be up. On the other hand, “if November goes up, most likely December will go sideways.”

The first source noted there is a sense that US demand will be better as we move past fall outages. 

“It is possible that several large mill group buyers did not buy all they wanted in October,” he added. “And Turkish demand could improve between now and then.”  

Regarding the Chicago and Detroit markets in October’s trade, he surmised there was enough supply in those Midwest areas to satisfy what seemed to be still lackluster demand. (See RMU’s Stephen Miller’s column here for more on October market dynamics.)

SMU’s October scrap pricing stands at:

  • Busheling at $390-420 per gross ton (gt), averaging $405, up $10 from September.
  • Shredded at $380-400/gt, averaging $390, up $15 from September.
  • HMS at $330-350/gt, averaging $340, up $17.50 from September.

After the settle

The first source noted that after the October trade he has seen more supply of scrap, particularly from Europe, offered to Turkish mills. He added that as a result, prices for 80/20 have fallen now $12-15/gt in just the last week.

“Waning excitement over that time about Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus have accelerated this drop in global scrap prices,” he said. “What this means for the November ferrous trade in the US remains to be seen.”

A second source remarked that the expectation for the November/December market is to be a 60-day market as opposed to two 30-day markets.

“Suppliers are expecting another $20 increase between now and the end of the year, primarily because of lack of supply,” he said. “Consumers will most likely counter with sideways and point to lower finished steel prices and export market stalling.”  

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

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