US May scrap price outlook improves, sources say
The US domestic scrap market for May is forming a lightly bullish consensus opinion among the seller community.
The US domestic scrap market for May is forming a lightly bullish consensus opinion among the seller community.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices widened again in April, a trend that started back in September.
The US scrap market has largely settled at prices most predicted in late March. The prevailing view then: shredded and other obsolete grades, like HMS, would drop $10-20 per gross ton (gt) despite higher transportation costs. And prime grades, like #1 busheling and bundles, would trade sideways thanks to better demand and static supply. This is essentially what has happened.
Since the middle of March I have been hearing that April scrap prices are going to be going down $20-$30 per gross ton (gt), with the exception of prime scrap, which is going to be sideways.
Prices for iron ore, aluminum, pig iron, and shredded scrap have all risen in the last 30 days. Busheling scrap held steady, while zinc and coking coal declined.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices widened in March, marking a six-month trend.
The US scrap market softened in March as most grades traded sideways, with prices seen falling next month, sources told SMU.
The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices widened slightly in February. It has been trending in that direction since October.
US ferrous scrap prices continued to rise in February, scrap sources told SMU.
US ferrous scrap prices rise in February.
All but one of the steelmaking raw materials we track increased in price over the last month
Speculation has already begun on what February has in store for the US scrap market after it rose $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in January,
The price spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap widened for a fourth consecutive month in January, based on SMU’s most recent pricing data.
Ferrous scrap prices jumped on all the products SMU tracks in January, scrap sources said.
The price spread between HRC and prime scrap has widened for a second month, based on SMU’s most recent pricing data.
November ferrous scrap prices landed even with October as the market settled, sources told SMU.
Since the October prices came out there have been a variety of speculative opinions on what the November looks like from several sources SMU regularly contacts.
US scrap prices fell on busheling and shredded in October, while HMS remained flat, market sources told SMU.
SMU spoke with a large channel in Brazil who confirmed his company sold a cargo of 50,000 metric tons (mt) to a US buyer at $383/mt FOB Brazil. That's down $12/mt from the last cargo sold in September.
Most mills sought a drop of $20-40 per gross ton (gt) in busheling prices and a $20/gt dip for shredded and HMS. Despite efforts to buy cheaper, the busheling price settled at down only $20/gt.
The ferrous scrap market is still searching for clues about the direction of the October market.
Comments from participants of our Ferrous Scrap Market Survey.
US busheling scrap prices have declined this month, while shredded and HMS tags have remained unchanged, according to market sources.
SMU’s current Scrap sentiment index increased this month while future sentiment declined, according to our latest ferrous scrap survey data.
The scrap market in the US for September shipment has started to settle, with busheling seen down so far.
The price spread between prime scrap and hot-rolled coil (HRC) narrowed in August, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
The scrap market traded sideways again in August with little change expected in September, according to sources.
The ferrous scrap market for August appears to be settling sideways as the threats posed to the market in July have not materialized.
The price spread between prime scrap and hot-rolled coil widened marginally again in July.
Ferrous scrap prices are flat in the US for a second consecutive month, but tariffs on imports of Brazilian pig iron could change the game in August.