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    Analysis

    May 15, 2026

    HRC vs. prime spread widens further in May

    Written by Ethan Bernard & Stephen Miller

    The spread between domestic hot-rolled coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen in April, a trend that began in September.

    SMU’s average HRC price was $1,080 per short ton (st) FOB mill, east of the Rockies, as of Tuesday, May 12. That’s a $5/st increase from the previous week and up $30/st from a month earlier.

    Meanwhile, busheling tags inched up $2.50 per gross ton (gt) in May, averaging $462.50/gt.

    Figure 1 shows price histories for each product.

    After converting scrap prices to dollars per short ton for an equal comparison, the differential between HRC and busheling scrap prices was $667/st as of Thursday, May 14. That’s up $28/st from a month earlier. It last stood at this mark in mid-April 2023 (Figure 2).

    What’s going on?

    The spread between these two commodities is roughly the same as last month if there was a uniform index for #1 Busheling. However, the busheling price varied by as much as $20/gt, depending on how various mills assessed their needs. Most scrap players thought the busheling price should have risen $20 nationwide. If it did, the spread would have remained approximately the same.

    Going forward, the price of busheling is likely to increase in the summer months, especially if HRC demand continues its upward cycle. 

    HRC premium as a percentage 

    The graph on the right-hand side of Figure 2 shows the spread relationship differently: We have graphed HRC’s premium over busheling scrap as a percentage. HRC prices now hold a 134% premium over prime scrap, up from 128% the previous month.

    Ethan Bernard

    Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.

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    Stephen Miller

    Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.

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