Analysis
April 28, 2026
US May scrap price outlook improves, sources say
Written by Stephen Miller
The US domestic scrap market for May is forming a lightly bullish consensus opinion among the seller community.
Several contacts SMU has interviewed believe steel melt rates have improved and demand for scrap will trump the usual springtime declines in obsolete grades due to supply increases. We did not receive any feedback saying prices will decline.
A trader in the Pennsylvania/Ohio area said he thinks both shredded scrap and busheling should be up at least $10 per gross ton (gt) due to increased costs of transportation.
He is concerned about shredded scrap in that flows of shredder feed are decreasing as costs rise.
The trader said, “Shredded is the lifeblood of the EAF industry since it is crucial to maintaining tap-to-tap times in that process. You cannot do this using busheling.”
He believes the pricing of shredded needs to improve to keep enough supply in the system for the EAF community.
A source in the North Central region also thought prices could improve for May, but hesitated to firmly predict this.
Instead, he thinks cut grades and shredded will trade sideways while prime grades could rise.
He added the general manufacturing activity in his area is improving, but not necessarily automotive. Homebuilding is up and mortgage delinquencies are down.
The opposite is true for car loans, which have seen delinquencies rise. Used car prices are starting to fall. This does not bode well for automotive, he said. He also said, despite automotive, flat roll mills in this region are very busy.
A mill source in the Southern Great Lakes district views primes up ($10-20/gt) and obsoletes sideways.
He attributes this to strong demand and rising steel prices. The source also noted firm export markets and continued high fuel costs as factors.
Regarding prime scrap, he said, “HRC mills will look for more prime due to the cost of pig iron.”
If this does happen, it will hold prices of secondary grades firm sideways as shredded will be a much sought after commodity.
SMU spoke with a scrap executive in the Southern region. When asked how he see things for May, he replied, “Sideways on obsolete and up-money for busheling.”
He said mills are seeking busheling and the supply is limited.
On shredded he believes it is sideways, but noted some mills in April bought shredded down $20/gt while others only dropped $10 /gt.
There could be a chance those prices may converge in a strong sideways market to the upside. He predicted buying would commence early next week.
