Product

Still waiting for November scrap settle post-election
Written by Stephen Miller
November 8, 2024
The US and Canadian ferrous scrap markets for November have not settled following the US presidential election. There doesn’t seem to be a key indicator as to why November prices haven’t settled yet. For the ferrous scrap market, I can’t see a big change occurring. Nothing short-term, anyways. The mills don’t seem to have a view, either, or at least they aren’t showing a lean in any direction.
The most recent sentiments are looking weaker for scrap tags. There are still persistent outages and demand is not rising for coils. But, going into winter, I will go out on a limb and predict any downward pricing in November, especially in Chicago and Detroit, will be met with dealer resistance. The mills may force-feed it to the trade, but they will have to pay the larger suppliers at least sideways prices to get their tons. Any downward movement will make December and January that much more expensive.
On the export front, things look like they may have bottomed, as prices are just over $360 per metric ton (mt) CFR Turkey for HMS 80/20. It’s speculative whether this will affect November prices in North America. Pig iron may be a problem going into the new year after the US buyers successfully got prices lowered by a reasonable degree. But with the tonnages they require only increasing, it is debatable whether steelmakers can fill their needs at these lower prices.
 
			    			
			    		Stephen Miller
Read more from Stephen MillerLatest in Product
 
		                                SMU Survey: Mills less negotiable on spot prices
Most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are considerably less willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were in recent weeks.
 
		                                SMU Survey: Lead times tick higher
Steel mill lead times marginally extended for both sheet and plate products this week, according to responses from SMU’s latest market survey.
 
		                                Buyers say plate market rejected last round of mill hikes
Participants in the domestic steel plate market said the plate market never accepted mill-issued spot price increases.
 
		                                Possible sideways move for ferrous scrap prices in November?
The domestic scrap market will start to form as early as next week for November shipment, sources told SMU. Predictions as of now are neither very positive for an increase nor are they negative for a decrease.
 
		                                SMU price ranges: Sheet ticks higher, plate stable
Sheet steel indices increased across the board this week, while plate prices held steady. All five of SMU’s price indices are higher than they were two weeks ago, and all but one are above levels recorded four weeks ago.
