Ferrous Scrap
Still waiting for November scrap settle post-election
Written by Stephen Miller
November 8, 2024
The US and Canadian ferrous scrap markets for November have not settled following the US presidential election. There doesn’t seem to be a key indicator as to why November prices haven’t settled yet. For the ferrous scrap market, I can’t see a big change occurring. Nothing short-term, anyways. The mills don’t seem to have a view, either, or at least they aren’t showing a lean in any direction.
The most recent sentiments are looking weaker for scrap tags. There are still persistent outages and demand is not rising for coils. But, going into winter, I will go out on a limb and predict any downward pricing in November, especially in Chicago and Detroit, will be met with dealer resistance. The mills may force-feed it to the trade, but they will have to pay the larger suppliers at least sideways prices to get their tons. Any downward movement will make December and January that much more expensive.
On the export front, things look like they may have bottomed, as prices are just over $360 per metric ton (mt) CFR Turkey for HMS 80/20. It’s speculative whether this will affect November prices in North America. Pig iron may be a problem going into the new year after the US buyers successfully got prices lowered by a reasonable degree. But with the tonnages they require only increasing, it is debatable whether steelmakers can fill their needs at these lower prices.
Stephen Miller
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