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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard


    What would you do if you had a time machine? Would you lobby Ford to keep the F-150 made of steel? Would you become the most successful purchasing manager in steel history, with a keen knack for being one step ahead of price volatility? Or would you go forward, maybe hit up 2050 to see how all the fuss turned out with those carbon neutral targets?

    Well, here at SMU, we can’t go forward. But we can look back. So as we wind down for the final two issues of 2024, we’re going to peer into the rearview of Decembers past: one year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and 100 years ago. Let’s take a look.

    Brett Linton

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Ethan Bernard

    Read more from Ethan Bernard

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    SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up slightly this week, while Future Sentiment fell, according to our latest market survey. Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

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    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.