Ferrous Scrap
US scrap market slumps in 2024
Written by Stephen Miller
December 19, 2024
The US domestic ferrous scrap market had a rough 2024, despite optimism as the year started. In December 2023, market prices shot up after multiple months of retreat. At this point, many players in the trade thought prices would return to levels experienced in 2021-22.
Well, the opposite happened. Ferrous scrap prices declined going into January and continued on that trajectory for eight consecutive months. This mirrored the fall in prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC). Prices for scrap steadied in October and rose slightly in November. But in December, prices again continued their downward slog, as HRC showed little strength and mills tried to minimize scrap intake.
The prices for the three ferrous scrap products SMU tracks— busheling, HMS, and shredded scrap—all declined over the course of 2024. To check out the prices, you can look at our interactive pricing tool here.
Over the year we have seen a more pronounced drop in demand for the industrial-generated grades of #1 Busheling and #1 Bundles. The other two obsolescent grades did not decline as much on a percentage basis, despite their elasticity. Ironically, the prime grades have been largely regarded as the most in demand by the electric-arc furnace (EAF) flat-roll steelmakers. But in 2024, they actually demonstrated the weakest demand based upon their relative price erosion.
Several industry organizations are predicting a better year for steel in 2025. There will be additional melting capacity added this coming year as several new mills start production and others ramp up from starts in 2024. It should be interesting to see how demand for scrap will be affected as there will be many moving parts making up the 2025 steel and scrap markets. SMU will be following it!
Stephen Miller
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