SMU Survey: Mill lead times short and steady to start 2025

Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.

Average lead times for hot-rolled steel are holding in the four-week range. Tandem product production times are hovering around six to seven weeks. And average plate lead times remain just under four weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent trends (click to expand).

Compared to our Dec. 18 market check, the upper limits for some of our lead time ranges this week have changed:

• The longest lead time considered in our hot-rolled range increased to seven weeks from six weeks.
• The longest lead time in our cold-rolled range decreased from nine weeks to eight weeks.
• The longest lead time in our galvanized range decreased from nine weeks to eight weeks.
• The longest lead time in our plate range decreased from seven weeks to six weeks.

What respondents are saying:

“Mill lead time domestically are still short. Unless we see ‘walls’ go up and shut out Canada and Mexican imports, lead times will remain short.”

“Unless we see Section 232 2.0, there is no reason for lead times to extend. Still too much domestic capacity.”

“Lead times can’t get any shorter.”

“If tariffs are issued, people will need to place additional light gauge orders with domestic mills.”

“Lead times in the second half of 2025 will be flat overall.”

“Slightly extending by mid-February, but we need an improved demand cycle to kick in.”

“Lead times will extend just slightly.”

Survey says

Over half of the respondents we surveyed this week expect lead times will be longer in two months (55%). Most of the rest foresee production times staying roughly where they are now (42%). Few expect lead times to contract further.

We also asked buyers to rate the current state of mill production times. Almost 60% say lead times are shorter than normal. Most of the rest felt they are at typical levels (39%). Just 2% of respondents voted that lead times today are longer than usual.

Lead time trends

To better highlight trends and smooth out variability in our biweekly data, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. As of Jan. 8, 3MMA lead times shrunk ever so slightly for both sheet and plate products. Overall, 3MMA lead times have trended lower across the past year, flattening out in recent months and remaining at or near one-year lows.

The hot rolled 3MMA is now at 4.75 weeks, cold rolled stands at 6.66 weeks, galvanized is at 6.84 weeks, Galvalume at 7.11 weeks, and plate at 3.98 weeks.

Figure 2 highlights lead time movements since the start of 2020.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.