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    Government/Policy

    January 10, 2025

    Price on Trade: Next six months will set course of trade for years to come

    Written by Alan Price & John Allen Riggins

    Even between administrations, trade policy changes rarely happen overnight – but expect the second Trump administration to make changes as close to “overnight” as possible.

    The Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Trade Act of 1974, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the Defense Production Act, and other authorities grant the president sweeping abilities to take immediate and decisive actions that affect trade and domestic production. With these tools at the incoming administration’s disposal, this may be the most consequential six months for trade policy in recent memory. The wait to see what form these actions take is almost over.

    Alan Price

    Price has more than 30 years of experience representing clients in high-profile, complex international trade regulatory matters, including trade litigation involving public and government relations issues. In addition to being chair of the firm’s International Trade Practice, he heads the firm’s antidumping and countervailing duty practice. He also counsels clients on bilateral and multilateral agreements, trade legislation, customs regulation, Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) compliance issues, escape clause investigations, and World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute resolution.

    Read more from Alan Price

    John Allen Riggins

    Riggins advises in matters related to trade remedies, national security, supply chains, trade policy, and digital trade. He represents client interests in a variety of international trade remedy proceedings before the Department of Commerce (DOC) and International Trade Commission (ITC) and related litigation before the US Court of International Trade (CIT) and the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC). Riggins has represented domestic producers in a wide array of industries, including steel, aluminum, wood, wind energy, transportation, and photovoltaics products.

    Read more from John Allen Riggins

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    Price on trade: Steel industry trick-or-treat

    It’s the scariest time of year in Washington, D.C. … election season. The city is a veritable haunted house of prognostication and speculation as everyone tries to discern which way the howling wind will blow. We’ll let the fortune tellers and prediction markets guess the outcomes of the midterms. What we do know is this: the steel industry has experienced its share of tricks and treats over the past few months. Below are a few notable steel tricks and treats this Halloween season.

    Leibowitz: The dilemmas facing primary aluminum and BOF steel

    Earlier this month, retired General David Petraeus, whose resume is as impressive as any I’ve seen, held a fireside chat at the National Press Club with Century Aluminum CEO Jesse Gary and Mark Duffy, the president and CEO of the American Primary Aluminum Association. During that widely reported chat, retired Gen. Petraeus stated that the US was not militarily ready for a conflict. Because the event concentrated on aluminum, and primary aluminum at that, his remarks hit harder than I think the full facts warrant.

    Canada, Ontario commit billions to steel and automotive industries

    The Canadian federal government and the Ontario provincial government have announced five-year commitments totaling CA$5.22 billion (US$3.72 billion) for a Joint Steel Action Fund. That funding comes alongside up to an additional CA$2.5 billion over two years for large-scale automotive capital projects. The federal and provincial governments said the package is intended to support domestic steel production, automotive manufacturing, and the transition to connected and electric vehicles.

    Commerce lowers Mexico’s dumping rate in CORE case

    The US Department of Commerce has reduced the anti-dumping duty on corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) for some Mexican producers after a court order. On remand from the Court of International Trade (CIT), Commerce agreed that the record did not show that Galvasid SA de CV’s US customers separately negotiated or paid freight or insurance. The agency therefore removed the adjustment and recalculated the margin. As a result, the agency lowered Galvasid’s coated steel dumping rate to 14.54%, from 24.05%. The all-others rate is now 14.29%, down from 17.42%. Ternium’s rate is unchanged at 14.17%.

    Price on Trade: Steel’s zero-sum game

    During the first three quarters of 2026, finished steel imports from South Korea increased 50.8% compared with the same period in 2025. Imports from Vietnam increased 23.4%, imports from Turkey increased 49.5%, and imports from India increased 29.5%. Those are not marginal increases. They are substantial import surges, especially in a US market where apparent domestic consumption has bounced around but has not grown since 2017. More importantly, these import surges are arriving at lower average unit values (AUVs).