Final Thoughts

January 21, 2025

Sometimes new presidential administrations hit the ground running. No time for change like the present. And sometimes new administrations blast off on a SpaceX rocket bound for Mars. There’s a big universe, and we’ve got a lot of flags to plant. Such seems to be the case with the new Trump administration.

I mean, President Trump really did talk about going to Mars in his inaugural address on Monday, as well as “manifest destiny.” Will the US Space Force end up functioning like the US Navy, safeguarding free trade across the “final frontier”?

After the speech, the president was very, very busy. The presidential actions taken on the first day… Well, I would call them a raft. But with their sheer number, they might be better compared to a cruise ship. (If you missed it, here is Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California.)

Now I could talk about the Delta smelt for ages. But getting back to planet Earth, one item with enormous implications for steel is a comment President Trump made while signing executive orders on Monday evening. He said the US could enact 25% tariffs on Mexican and on Canadian imports to the country as soon as Feb. 1. SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden covers it here.

Canadian recycler

A Canadian metal recycler told SMU they ship a significant portion of their scrap to US mills and foundries. With a 25% tariff slapped on scrap, they simply “don’t know what will happen.”

The tariff has the potential to send the price of scrap shooting up in the US, while sending it down in Canada. Whatever happens, it’s definitely going to have an effect on the market, and not just on scrap.

But is it just a high-stakes bargaining ploy to bring our USMCA partners to the table well ahead of the periodic review of the agreement in 2026? Or perhaps on other issues such as immigration and drug trafficking? At this point we can’t be sure. Still, I wouldn’t want to be a Delta smelt right about now.

We’re obviously going to find out soon on those tariffs because Feb. 1 is only a little over a week away. In general, though, what was the consensus of associations representing American steel mills about Trump’s first day?

Steel trade groups respond

Kevin Dempsey, president and CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), was upbeat on this administration’s outlook on trade.

“We welcome President Trump’s commitment to treating trade policy as a critical component to national security and to pursuing a robust and reinvigorated trade policy agenda to tackle many of the issues that are priorities for the American steel industry,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.

Dempsey highlighted, among other things, addressing unfair trade practices. He also cheered the administration’s pledge to review and assess the effectiveness of the Section 232 steel tariff program that Trump established in 2018.

“We urge the new administration to take active steps to reinvigorate that program to ensure it is meeting the objectives originally established by President Trump during his first term,” Dempsey added.

Philip K. Bell, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA) was also bullish in his comments on Trump’s first day. First, Bell congratulated Trump on his inauguration, and he lauded Trump’s support for American steel workers.

SMA presented a five-point action plan for steel to Trump while he was still president-elect. In it, the association asked Trump to stand up to “unfair” trade practices. “And he is doing just that,” Bell said in a statement to SMU on Tuesday.

Bell noted that legislation such as Leveling the Playing Field 2.0 will give the administration “even stronger tools” to enforce trade rules and to investigate unfair trade practices as well as their impact on domestic manufacturing.

Both groups looked forward to working with the new presidential administration to help advance the interests of domestic steelmakers.

Looking ahead

A week from now, a month from now, a year from now, what will the political/economic landscape look like? Like a Martian desert? At this point at SMU, we’re just trying to hang in there for tomorrow’s news cycle. “Interesting times” are newsy times. And for smelt and for steel, these are newsy times.

Tampa Steel Conference

Whether you want to talk smelt or steel, we look forward to catching up with so many of you at the Tampa Steel Conference on Feb. 2-4.

If you haven’t made plans to attend yet, you can see the companies who will be there here. The agenda is here. And you can register here.

In the meantime, we thank all of you for your continued support. We really do appreciate you!

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA. in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.