Features
AISI: Raw steel production stable last week
Written by Brett Linton
March 17, 2025
Raw steel mill output held steady last week following its rebound the prior week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Production remains at one of the higher rates recorded so far this year.
Domestic steel mill production was estimated at 1,667,000 short tons (st) in the week ending March 15 (Figure 1). Production declined by 4,000 tons, or 0.2%, from the previous week.
Last week’s production was 0.7% above the year-to-date average of 1,656,000 st per week. Compared to this time last year, production this week is down by 1.7%.
The latest mill capability utilization rate was 74.9%. This is marginally lower than the previous week (75.0%), but considerably lower than this time last year (76.4%).
Year-to-date production totals 17,517,000 st at a capability utilization rate of 74.4%. This is 1.3% less than the same period of last year, when 17,751,000 st had been produced at a rate of 75.8%.
Raw production increased this week in three of the five regions, as reported by AISI:
- Northeast – 120,000 st (down 8,000 st w/w)
- Great Lakes – 475,000 st (up 3,000 st)
- Midwest – 240,000 st (up 3,000 st)
- South – 771,000 st (up 9,000 st)
- West – 61,000 st (down 11,000 st)
Editor’s note: The raw steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated and should be used primarily to assess production trends. The graphic included in this report shows unadjusted weekly data. The monthly AISI “AIS 7” report is available by subscription and provides a more detailed summary of domestic steel production.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025
AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.