Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by Brett Linton
March 27, 2025
DIY home construction projects are always an adventure. The whole thing starts with careful planning, figuring out material lists, and navigating potential local government red tape.
Next up are the multiple Home Depot runs and convincing friends and family to lend a helping hand on evenings or weekends. Oddly enough, people seem to get busy pretty fast when you mention a bit of manual labor.
Add in the inevitable plan revisions halfway through construction, finding excuses to buy more tools, and learning how to tackle new tasks via YouTube tutorials. Every step leaves its mark, whether mental fatigue or a hammer’s stray strike on a thumb.
A personal perspective on Galvalume prices
In my never-ending search for more garage space to house my growing car collection, I recently set out to add an extension to my shop. And with that, my day job in the steel industry once again made its way into my personal life. I visited my local metal supply store to purchase some roofing panels – polar while, tough-rib, 29-gauge Galvalume, to be exact.
As the salesman rang up my order, something caught my eye… the price. I paid $3.75 per linear foot for a few hundred pounds of material. This number seemed low to me, as back in August 2020, I added a garage to my house and purchased similar material for only $2.75 per linear foot. How could this new steel be just a buck higher than years ago when steel prices are so much more expensive today?
Crunching the numbers
A quick look at the SMU steel indices tells that side of the story. This week, our Galvalume index averages $1,140 per short ton, excluding any width or coating extras. In August 2020, our index was $670/st.
We could dive into coating and painting extras, lead times, and freight costs (all of which are likely higher or longer today than in 2020), but for this comparison, let’s stick to the basics.
That’s at least a 70% increase in raw material costs. And yet, my price at the counter only went up by 36%. This goes to show how complex end-use pricing is, beyond just the cost of the raw material itself.
A picture says a thousand words
While waiting for the order to get loaded onto my trailer, I glanced around the yard at the prepainted coils and saw a familiar logo.

Chances are, the material I had just purchased originated from Steel Dynamics Inc.’s (SDI’s) Columbus, Miss., mill, about 300 miles west of where I live near Atlanta. Funny enough, I toured that very mill last fall during our Steel 101 workshop. Was destiny at play?
This experience reinforced something I quickly came to understand when I entered the industry in 2010. Steel is much more than just a commodity; it’s a dynamic industry shaped by a complex web of market forces. From my project to a bridge to a cargo ship, it’s playing a vital role in every step of the economy.
So, as my shop expansion takes shape, I’ll take pride in knowing exactly where a piece of it came from. It would’ve been great to share this with someone helping me on the job. But, you know, people get busy. The next best thing is sharing it with all of you. We greatly appreciate your continued support.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.