Features

AISI: Raw steel production jumps to 6-month high
Written by Brett Linton
April 1, 2025
Raw steel mill output from US mills rebounded last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Production is now at the highest weekly rate recorded so far this year.
For the week ending March 29, domestic steel output was estimated at 1,697,000 short tons (st), an increase of 43,000 st, or 2.6%, from the prior week (Figure 1). The last time we saw mill output this high was in September 2024.

Last week’s production was 2.3% greater than the year-to-date weekly average of 1,659,000 st per week. Compared to this time last year, production this week is slightly up by 0.1%.
The mill capability utilization rate rose to 76.2% last week, up from 74.3% the previous week. However, it remains slightly below the 76.4% rate recorded this time last year.
Year-to-date mill output totals 20,868,000 st at a capability utilization rate of 74.5%. This is 1.3% lower than the same period in 2024 when 21,143,000 st was produced at a 75.8% utilization rate.
Weekly regional production data and week-over-week (w/w) changes are as follows:
- Northeast – 126,000 st (up 3,000 st w/w)
- Great Lakes – 508,000 st (up 20,000 st)
- Midwest – 231,000 st (up 7,000 st)
- South – 759,000 st (up 14,000 st)
- West – 73,000 st (down 1,000 st)
Editor’s note: The raw steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated and should be used primarily to assess production trends. The graphic included in this report shows unadjusted weekly data. The monthly AISI “AIS 7” report is available by subscription and provides a more detailed summary of domestic steel production.

Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025

AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.