SMU Data and Models

SMU's March at a glance
Written by Brett Linton
April 1, 2025
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of our key steel market metrics for the previous month, with the latest data updated through March 31.
Following February’s sharp gains, steel prices plateaued in March, showing signs of stabilizing or easing by the end of the month. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted from Higher to Neutral on hot-rolled steel products in the fourth week of March. Price momentum for the remaining sheet and plate products remained at Higher.
Steel scrap prices maintained their upward momentum through March, driven by limited supply and tariff uncertainty. This pushed prices to their highest level seen in over a year. Looking ahead, future scrap market expectations are less optimistic. Early indications suggest a slowdown as steelmakers prepare for a weakening automotive market.
Our Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remained strong through March. Both our Current and Future Sentiment Indices continue to indicate that buyers are optimistic about their companies’ chances of success in both today’s market and the first half of the year.
After stretching out in February, steel mill lead times stabilized by the end of March across all five sheet and plate products we measure. Lead times began to extend in February due to a tariff-driven buying surge. As purchasing patterns return to normal, lead times are expected to follow suit.
Most steel buyers report that mills remain unwilling to negotiate new spot order prices. Following President Trump’s tariff actions and rising mill prices, negotiation rates plummeted in mid-February, reaching a near-two-year low by early March.
See the table below for other key March metrics (click here to expand). Historical monthly review table can be found on our website.


Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.

SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.

Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.