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    CRU: 'Liberation Day' brings sweeping US tariffs

    Written by Alex Tuckett & Henry Hao


    Donald Trump has announced major increases in tariffs on almost all US trading partners, with the exception of Mexico and Canada. Taken together with the tariffs already announced since he took office, around $2 trillion (60%) of US imports are now facing significantly higher tariffs, at an average rate of around 20%.

    These tariffs have the potential to push up inflation by 2 percentage points to 4 percentage points in the US and will depress already slowing consumer spending. For trading partners, the tariffs will reduce demand for exports and depress growth. Over the coming days, trade partners will almost certainly announce retaliation, which will hit US exports.

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.