AMU
April 17, 2025
Written by Nicholas Bell
| Production | Q1’25 | Q1’24 | Change |
| Aluminum production (metric tons) | 564 | 542 | +4% |
| Alumina production (metric tons) | 2,355 | 2,670 | -12% |
| Bauxite production (dry metric tons) | 9,500 | 10,100 | -6% |
| Deliveries | |||
| Aluminum shipments | 609 | 634 | -4% |
| Third-party alumina shipments | 2,105 | 2,397 | +12% |
| Third-party bauxite shipments | 3,000 | 1,000 | +200% |
After flying into a rain-soaked London seeking answers to questions on key issues in the aluminum space, we left the city with uncertainty remaining. As always, the speakers at LME Week 2026, which ran from Oct. 19-23, did a solid job evaluating the fundamentals for each of the metals they were covering. But most shied away from providing specific price forecasts. Who could blame them given the imponderables below?
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
Recycler forward expectations swung toward oversupply in September as inventory drawdowns eased and export demand lost August’s improving responses.
Kibar Americas said production has started at its aluminum plant in Fairmont, W.Va., where it will manufacture products for the HVAC, packaging, automotive and industrial sectors.
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”