Features
AISI: Raw steel production climbs to 7-month high
Written by Brett Linton
April 28, 2025
US steel mills produced more raw steel last week than they have over the past seven months, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).
Domestic steel mill output was estimated at 1,706,000 short tons (st) for the week ending April 26 (Figure 1), marking the highest weekly total recorded since September 2024. Production rose by 24,000 tons, or 1.4%, compared to the previous week.
Last week’s production was 2.5% above the year-to-date average of 1,665,000 st per week and 0.6% higher than the same week in 2024.
The mill capability utilization rate was 76.0% last week, up from 74.9% the prior week but slightly lower than the 76.3% rate seen this time last year. Since the start of 2025, utilization has averaged 74.7%.
Year-to-date production now stands at 27,601,000 st at a capability utilization rate of 74.7%. Output is down 1.2% compared to the same period of 2024, when 27,924,000 st was produced at a rate of 75.9%.
Raw production increased week over week (w/w) in three of the five regions defined by AISI:
- Northeast – 126,000 st (down 4,000 st w/w)
- Great Lakes – 547,000 st (up 24,000 st)
- Midwest – 236,000 st (down 11,000 st)
- South – 729,000 st (up 13,000 st)
- West – 68,000 st (up 2,000 st)
Editor’s note: The raw steel production tonnage provided in this report is estimated and should be used primarily to assess production trends. The graphic included in this report shows unadjusted weekly data. The monthly AISI “AIS 7” report is available by subscription and provides a more detailed summary of domestic steel production.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Features
Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Get an inside look at steelmaking at SMU’s Steel 101 workshop
If you’re looking to build a solid foundation in steel or sharpen the knowledge you already have, the SMU Steel 101 Workshop is a great place to start. Our next workshop will be held in Memphis, Tenn. on June 10-11, 2025
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Price: Expect new trade shocks as Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariff negotiations continue
President Trump cast a wide net with the proposed, reciprocal tariffs. The negotiating stage will be critical to determining the success of his strategy. And for those suffering tariff whiplash, don’t expect the pace of change to slow down just because the reciprocal tariffs are entering a negotiating phase.