Economy
Chicago Business Barometer falls back in April, remains in contraction
Written by Brett Linton
May 1, 2025
The Chicago Business Barometer declined in April, reversing March’s gains, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Previously at a 16-month high, the Barometer continues to reflect contracting business conditions, as it has since December 2023.
The Barometer fell by three points in April to 44.6, more than erasing March’s 2.1-point gain. This is a diffusion index, where a reading above 50 indicates improving business conditions and a reading below that indicates contraction.
The Barometer has now been in contraction for 17 consecutive months and has only signaled expansion for one month in the last two and a half years (November 2023).
MNI attributed this decline to sharp drops in new orders and production, along with a modest fall in supplier deliveries. Just two of the five subcomponents rose: employment and order backlogs.
Respondents were asked two special questions in the survey, which ran from April 1 to April 14.
Q: What are you immediately doing as a result of the tariff uncertainty?
A: Respondents chose multiple answers. The top three actions selected were temporary surcharges, hiring freezes, and switching suppliers.
Q: In support of anticipating and adapting to future trends, what areas of the business will you focus on next year?
A: This was also a multiple-choice question. The majority (~78%) responded they would focus on operational efficiency and costs (~78%), followed by managing risk/compliance (~48%), operational resilience (~37%), and cross-functional initiatives (~19%).
View the full release here.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy
Beige Book: Tariff pressures mount, flat outlook
All districts reported “experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.”
Steel exports recovered in May but still historically low
US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.
AISI: Raw steel production ticks up near recent high
The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.
Steel groups welcome passage of budget bill
Steel trade groups praised the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) in Congress on Thursday.
Industry groups praise Senate for passing tax and budget bill
The Steel Manufacturers Association and the American Iron and Steel Institute applauded the tax provisions included in the Senate's tax and budget reconciliation bill.