SMU's Week in Review: April 28-May 2

We had a slew of first quarter earnings this week: ArcelorMittal, Ternium, Algoma, Nucor, U.S. Steel, and others. And several of those calls revealed new projects and updated ongoing construction.

AM/NS Calvert, the joint venture between ArcelorMittal and Nippon Steel, expects the first heat for its EAF mill in Alabama in Q2’25.

Ternium raised its budget for its large-scale expansion in Mexico by 16% to $4 billion. The steelmaker now expects the new steel slab mill in Pesquería will begin operations by Q4’26.

Algoma’s transition from blast furnace to EAF continues, with first production expected in Q2’25.

Nucor has several capital projects expected to start operations within the next year in North Carolina, Arizona, Indiana, and South Carolina.

SSAB plans to invest about $74 million to expand its heat treat capacity, also in Alabama.

U.S. Steel announced some outages on the horizon – planned 60-day maintenance activity at blast-furnace #6 at its Gary Works in Indiana, and 20-day maintenance activity at the Gary hot strip mill – both in Q2’25.

Of course, we have to mention tariffs, which couldn’t be avoided as companies discussed their quarterly results. Even some mills that support tariffs in the long-term are sounding a note of caution, at least in the short term.

Aditya Mittal CEO of ArcelorMittal summed it up: “Looking ahead, a measure of caution about the short-term outlook is appropriate. Heightened uncertainty around the terms of global trade is hurting business confidence and risks causing further economic disruption if not quickly resolved.”

But there may be another change-up on tariffs. Last Tuesday, Trump said he plans to relax some of the 25% auto tariffs.

On the scrap and pig iron front, SMU’s Stephen Miller does a deep dive into SHRED-1 technology and the goal to achieve low copper.

Survey results

One SMU survey found that more steel buyers – nearly two-thirds — say domestic mills are more willing to deal on spot prices. It marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in recent months. We have a breakdown on negotiation rates by product here.

Buyers also told SMU that sheet and plate lead times held steady this week, with little change from mid-April levels. We have the details.

Prices and indices

Most sheet and plate steel prices declined yet again last week, with four of SMU’s five indices moving lower. And buyers are staying on the sidelines, wary of further declines. Demand is still soft, with most buyers sticking to contract minimums as prices trend downward.

SMU’s Mill Order Index fell in March after repeated gains at the start of the year. The slowdown comes after a ramp-up in shipments was met by a slight decline in intake as services centers looked to right-size inventories.

The rush to buy before tariffs went into effect has pushed down domestic hot-rolled coil prices. US hot band has declined five times over the past six weeks, even as some price erosion has recently been seen in offshore markets.

Cold-rolled coil prices also edged lower this week for the fourth week in a row. Most offshore markets mirrored the move.

Notable quotes

A purchasing executive:

“You haven’t seen the numbers dropping as I would have expected and as the futures expect. Doesn’t mean that it won’t happen next week. … Eventually supply will exceed demand with prices above $900.”

An executive at a distributor:

“The mills are right. People can’t hold off forever. But I just don’t see any positives. … To me, it’s all about lead times. Right now, our orders are ready in 3-4 weeks, which is short.”

“We think prices will go down. How can they go up in June/July during the ‘summer doldrums’? Demand is down. You’ll have the auto shutdowns. None of the mills are saying that prices are going up. When it stops going up, it starts going down. … Scrap is down, the summer doldrums, and demand is down – it (price) can only go down.”

Upcoming economic highlights

May 5: ISM services
May 6: US trade deficit
May 7: FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference
May 8: Initial jobless claims