CRU
May 6, 2025
Written by CRU Group
The chances of crude steel production reductions across China are high because they have been mentioned in a government report, according to Cai Yanbo, deputy general manager of Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel).
He was commenting after being asked about market rumors of 50 million tons of output being cut this year, less than 0.5% of the 1 billion tons-plus China has produced annually in recent years.
CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.
CRU Research Principal speaks about the implication of Mesabi Metallics' proposed steel mill in Iowa.
CME Group’s HR coil futures have had a volatile stretch over the past few weeks.
Americas wire and cable demand held firm through H1 2026, as data center and energy infrastructure buildouts, driven by wider electrification and power supply investments, more than offset weakness in traditional construction sectors such as residential
For the next month, CRU forecasts that steelmaking raw materials demand will improve as buyers will restock ahead of seasonally stronger steel-demand periods.