Contributor: CRU Group

There is increasing evidence that the current La Niña weather phenomenon is coming to an end, and that we are quickly moving into an El Niño cycle already in the next few months.

Steel output will carry on in Iran despite repeated US-Israeli air strikes on key industrial sites, including the Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel companies, according to a senior Iranian industry official.

This CRU insight demonstrates how the conflict in Middle East supports metallurgical coal prices and iron ore will be impacted by a potential decline in demand from China and rising costs, while the pellet market will be severely disrupted.

The main impact on the ferrous value chain from the Middle East conflict will be the higher energy costs in a prolonged scenario.

The Italian government has received 10 offers for the former Ilva integrated steel works at Taranto, but only two bidders are interested in purchasing all of the company’s assets.

Voestalpine and partners have begun building an industrial-scale Hy4Smelt demonstration plant in Linz, Austria, which they hope will become key in the decarbonization of steel.

For the next month, CRU forecasts that global demand for steelmaking raw materials will increase month on month (m/m).

Baosteel exec comments on market rumors of 50 million tons of output being cut this year, less than 0.5% of the 1 billion tons-plus China has produced annually in recent years.

“The lack of effective measures to create fair competition, amid a surge in subsidized imports, is the main threat to the sustainability of Brazil’s steel industry and its value chain,” CEO Marcelo Chara said.

The union is also urging stronger enforcement against countries such as China which break trade rules, and a coordinated Canada-US strategy to protect union jobs across the North America

While overall steel demand remains weak in the near term, there are reasons to expect metallurgical coal prices will increase over the course of the year, Ramaco says.

Brazilian long products producer Gerdau is now considering siting a 600,000 ton per year specialty steel plant in the United States, rather than Mexico as initially planned, in the wake of President Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on steel imports into the US.

US primary output is at its lowest level this century

Targets include coal, liquified natural gas, crude oil, and other commodities