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    CRU

    March 14, 2025

    CRU: Ramaco chief takes bullish stance in bear market

    Written by CRU Group

    While overall steel demand remains weak in the near term, there are reasons to expect metallurgical coal prices will increase over the course of the year, especially in the second half, according to Randall Atkins, chairman and CEO of US coking coal producer Ramaco Resources.

    “Anecdotally, on the supply side we believe that US production of metallurgical coal in the first quarter of 2025 is likely to have declined by 14 million [short] tons (st) on an annualized basis from the 2024 peak,” he said.

    CRU Group

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    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.