SMU's Week in Review: May 5-May 9

Olympic Steel’s earnings slid during the first three months of the year, but the company remains optimistic about navigating a high-tariff environment, noting that 90% of its metals supply and nearly all of its sales are domestic.

Russel Metals advised that “near-term activity could be impacted by international trade policies and North American industrial activity.” But it still is in the market to expand through acquisitions.

But the biggest news came from Cleveland-Cliffs, which is idling six assets and is interested in selling non-core operations to stem losses. The steelmaker gushed red ink during the first quarter, losing more than seven times the amount it lost during the same time last year.

Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves also said it would not have been so eager to buy Canadian sheet producer Stelco if he had known that “Canada would not be treated like a friend” by the US.

Trade

There were more developments on the tariff front, as the US and UK reached a trade deal that includes an “alternative” to Section 232 tariffs on British steel and aluminum that went into effect in March.

Meanwhile, SMU’s Stephen Miller took a look at trade policy by reflecting on the early days of pig iron production, going back to the Hanging Rock region of Southeastern Ohio.

Prices

Sheet prices were flat or down again during the week as market participants brace for what some said could be a slow summer for steel. The declines came after Nucor lowered its list price for hot-rolled coil by $20 per short ton.

Steel consumers said they are generally out of the spot market, with some noting that they continue to buy only to their contract minimums. The resulting thin spot market has perhaps kept prices from falling more significantly. Simply put, mills don’t think that lowering prices would bring in much new business.

So how do imports look?

Asian hot-rolled prices are still much, much cheaper than US HR. German and Italian HR, in contrast, are more expensive then US hot band on a landed basis. SMU’s David Schollaert digs into the data.

The US ferrous scrap market for May shipment settled, with the prime grades of #1 Busheling and bundles falling around $30 per gross ton (gt) from April levels. The obsolescent grades of HMS, shredded and plate, and structural declined by ~$40/gt across several regions. Market participants had expected a drop in scrap prices. But some had thought busheling would fare better than it did.

Economic highlights

May 12: Monthly US federal budget
May 13: Consumer price index
May 15: Initial jobless claims, retail sales, producer price index, Empire State manufacturing survey
May 16: Import price index, housing starts, preliminary consumer sentiment