US scrap tags tumble in May, bottom near?

That source noted a large Detroit-area mill settled at busheling down $40, shred off $50, and plate & structurals down $30.

However, another source said we could be nearing a bottom.

“The entrance of one national consumer at down $40 for obsolete grades,  rather than the expected down $50 or even $60, spooked other consumers into matching this level,” the second source said. “This action, many surmise,  could be an indication of the market bottoming.”

Reflecting on the current market, a third source said, “The factors that drove the market lower in April are still at play.” He cited relatively heavy scrap flows in April, lackluster demand at US mills, and generally weak export markets.

The third source noted there has been some good news in the last week or so, though.

“US steel mill production tons continue to tick higher week over week for the last few weekly prints, and are at their highest levels since last summer,” he said. “We need to see how long that sustains.”

The third source continued that “export pricing has clearly bottomed, and new sales are about $12-$15 higher than they were at the bottom, with more Turkish demand on the horizon.”

SMU’s May scrap pricing stands at:

• Busheling at $410-440 per gross ton (gt), averaging $425/gt, down $30 from April.
• Shredded at $370-390/gt, averaging $380/gt, down $40 from April.
• HMS at $315-345/gt, averaging $330/gt, off $40 from April.

Survey respondents get it right

The market’s settle corresponds to what survey respondents forecasted in SMU’s most recent scrap survey. (Note that the majority of responses were collected before the market settled.)

Three-fourths of respondents thought May prime scrap tags would be down, 23% sideways, and only 2% thought prices would rise.

Here’s what they had to say:

“Down slightly, there is not much available.”

“Normal seasonal pressure and strong automotive production will make premium grades more readily available.”

“Excess shred tons looking for outlets off the East Coast.”

“Automotive demand is down.”

“A slight increase in demand.”

“Finished pricing is under pressure, therefore the mills are going to try and push scrap/RM pricing down as well.”