Ferrous Scrap

Miller on Scrap: Sentiment for June brightening

May 24, 2025

SMU spoke with an attendee of the Recycled Materials Association (ReMA) Annual Convention held earlier this month in San Diego. He said most of the membership was of the opinion the US ferrous market is at the bottom. The last two months saw shredded drop by $80 per gross ton (gt) and busheling decline by $50/gt.

At the start of the month, many players were fearful of an extended period of price declines beyond the May settlements. Asked about the reason for this change in sentiment, the source listed several of them.

Export Increasing

He believes most expect the June market to be a “strong sideways.” The export markets are becoming more attractive to the point more scrap will be sent offshore rather than sold into the domestic market.

Scrap Flows

He also added the scrap flows into dealers’ yards seems to be over 10% less than in April. This is not unusual when prices drop so precipitously. He also noticed more confidence on the part of the trade the Trump administration’s tariffs on steel may be starting to have a positive impact.

Export price comparison

On the export front, prices have been ramping up, with the asking price for US cargoes now being in the range of $350-$355 per metric ton (mt) CFR for HMS 80/20 and $20 more for shredded.

SMU has not heard of any transactions at this level thus far. However, the Europeans have sold as high as $347 for HMS and shredded at $367.

This means if Turkey needs to buy more from the US, they will have to pay over $350/$370 per mt, due to higher logistics costs. At these price levels, export shredded scrap is at about the same level of what US mills are paying. It does not seem likely shredded prices could drop from the levels paid in May, given this eventuality.

Several sources have related to SMU that a large US-based EAF steelmaker made a record-high tonnage buy in May and plans to do so in June. If this indeed does occur, it is another tailwind for scrap prices ahead.

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40+ years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.