HR futures remain sensitive to tariff talk

From the time of my previous column on May 29 (blue), the curve reflected a cautious and fairly flat structure, with prices hovering around $800 in the front months with little directional conviction. Sentiment was hesitant.

Post-announcement, Monday, June 2 (orange), the curve steepened aggressively, particularly in the front months: June +$51, July +$131, and August +$115. A pretty textbook case of behavior in the face of a shock: first a surge (panic), then a partial reversion (reassessment).

At first, today’s curve, June 3 (white in the chart above) looked like a classic correction: The curve moderately pulled back and flattened, suggesting the market was catching its breath. But by the final hour of the session, sentiment had turned again. The curve steepened once more (white in the chart below), this time led by gains in the back half of 2025 and into early 2026.

CME Midwest HRC Futures Curve (6/3 EOD in white, 6/2 in orange, 5/29 in blue)

What started off the day indicated a reserve in judgement about the lasting impact, reflecting market skepticism about the durability of the policy and long-term demand elasticity. Inviting the questions, “How lasting will the tariffs be, and how much real disruption will they cause?” This was potentially speaking to a maturing market, one more experienced in dealing with tariff-driven headlines. After all, there’s been no shortage of them.

To close the day with such a shift implies the market is beginning to assign more weight to the longer-term implications of the policy, or headlines are creating a choppy environment.

All-in-all, a takeaway is clear: weird things happen around $800. As I mentioned last week, when this market is given even a little hope, or in this case, a headline, it can sprint. And just as quickly, it can question itself. And if it turns out the story sticks, it runs even farther. The speed and scale of these moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues. Whether this holds or fizzles will likely depend on how mill behavior unfolds.

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