Contributor: Gaby Ain

In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

I ended my previous column expecting some eventful times ahead for HRC futures. That proved true almost immediately. I ended my previous column expecting some eventful times ahead for HRC futures. That proved true almost immediately. By that weekend, the tentative US-Canada trade agreement had fallen through, and the futures market began a sharp recovery. Since then, the curve has not only erased the initial selloff but has moved well beyond where it stood before the agreement was announced. The progression of the curve tells the story. Following news of the tentative Canada agreement, HRC futures sold off broadly (orange from purple), with the belly bearing the brunt of the move.

Just when things start to feel a little same old, same old in the futures market, that sneaky volatility shows up.

The US HRC futures curve has continued to move higher, particularly in the deferred months, suggesting the market is pricing a slower return to balance.

In my previous column on April 23, I posed a question: whether supply can respond sufficiently under current conditions. Since then, the US HRC futures curve has continued to move higher and further out.

As the steel market works through the first month of Q2 and the spring outage season, the US HRC futures curve continues to reflect a market adjusting to tightening conditions. The recalibration of near-term expectations sets the stage for how the curve has developed in recent weeks.

A month ago, the steel market was defined by stability. Prices had firmed and held, and the HRC futures curve appeared to be absorbing strength and follow-through rather than rejecting it. Since then, that stability has evolved into something more meaningful, repricing.

A narrow range has emerged, suggesting the market’s repricing of downside risk is starting to stick.

The opening weeks of 2026 are revealing a subtle but important change in the HRC futures market, as tightening physical conditions begin to exert greater influence over pricing dynamics.

After another eventful week in the steel market comes to a close, one of the most interesting developments has been timing.

The market has entered into a bit of a quiet recalibration, the kind of pause that feels like a held breath. Prices have stopped falling. Lead times have stretched just enough to create firmer footing. The urgency of downside risk has faded, but maybe (not quite yet) moved on.

The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) market feels steadier as the 4th quarter begins - not strong, but no longer slipping either.

As Labor Day marks the transition into fall, the steel market enters September with a similar sense of change. Supply-side fundamentals are beginning to show signs of restraint: imports are limited, outages loom, and production is capped, setting the stage for a market that feels steady on the surface but still unsettled underneath.

The cautious neutrality and summertime blues we discussed just a few weeks ago have evolved into something decidedly more bearish.

Coming out of the holiday market and long weekend, it seems the HRC futures market has caught some post-vacation blues.

Never a dull moment in today's HR futures market.

The speed and scale of recent moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues.

The evolution of the U.S. HRC futures curve since my last update on April 17 tells a familiar story: fleeting optimism giving way to renewed caution.

The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.

Week over week, the futures curve saw minimal change.

What a difference a few weeks make…. As this is our first column after the new year, it is quite interesting to observe how different the steel world looks at the end of January vs. the end of December.