The market has entered into a bit of a quiet recalibration, the kind of pause that feels like a held breath. Prices have stopped falling. Lead times have stretched just enough to create firmer footing. The urgency of downside risk has faded, but maybe (not quite yet) moved on.
The US hot-rolled coil (HRC) market feels steadier as the 4th quarter begins - not strong, but no longer slipping either.
As Labor Day marks the transition into fall, the steel market enters September with a similar sense of change. Supply-side fundamentals are beginning to show signs of restraint: imports are limited, outages loom, and production is capped, setting the stage for a market that feels steady on the surface but still unsettled underneath.
The cautious neutrality and summertime blues we discussed just a few weeks ago have evolved into something decidedly more bearish.
Coming out of the holiday market and long weekend, it seems the HRC futures market has caught some post-vacation blues.
Never a dull moment in today's HR futures market.
The speed and scale of recent moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues.
The evolution of the U.S. HRC futures curve since my last update on April 17 tells a familiar story: fleeting optimism giving way to renewed caution.
The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.
Week over week, the futures curve saw minimal change.
What a difference a few weeks make…. As this is our first column after the new year, it is quite interesting to observe how different the steel world looks at the end of January vs. the end of December.