Miller on Scrap: More malaise, or will tariffs lead to higher prices?

The US ferrous scrap market traded sideways for June. This move was interpreted by several players as slightly optimistic given the severe drop in prices in April and May. So, what does the trade see ahead for the summer and the rest of the year?

If we review the price trends for the last two years, we can see this year’s pattern taking a similar shape. In both 2023 and 2024, the year started out with higher prices mainly brought on by seasonal factors after prices bottomed out going into Q4 of the previous year. This was followed by weakening price levels as the market drifted into summer. From there, both years’ prices traded sideways to down until mid-Q4, then rallied into December and January. Are we in that same pattern once more?

Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller started his career in the scrap metal industry in 1978 at Luria Brothers in Cleveland. Over the last 40-plus years, he has worked in all capacities in the trading business. He has had positions in both domestic and international scrap trading. In addition to scrap, Miller was at the forefront of the pig iron trade and established a pig iron distribution company under the name of Ferrosource, Inc. Most recently, Miller has concentrated on the scrap export market and regularly does consulting for several companies in the industry.