Hot-rolled price hikes garner mixed reactions from the market

West of the Rocky Mountains

One West Coast source says he did not flinch when he saw the price increases. But he questions whether the increases will stick.

“The mills are being coy, and conservative in my opinion, compared to price increases of years past – where they pushed the envelope harder. I’m not sure that increases are being enforced. Transactional pricing may not reflect the announcements. I think the mills are waiting on final trade agreements and to see what the ultimate outcome of the tariffs will be,” he said.

The same West Coast source said making demand generalizations would not be valuable. He stated that too many variables are at play.

“Demand varies across the country and also depends on your customer base. We are like a lot of companies, and demand is not where we would like it. It’s going to be a tough summer,” he added.

East of the Rockies

A Northeastern-based distributor said Nucor’s price increase signals to the market that the steelmaker will only bargain so low.

“I think they are trying to make a statement. But there is too much HRC capacity and even more coming. … For Nucor, it can only be a statement about price discipline,” he said.

The same source added, “Business is very slow. Prices are stuck, even as mills add increases. … There’s still a lot of market uncertainty out there right now.”

One service center source in the Midwest said the mill increases were counterproductive. He emphasized that the existing market conditions favor buyers, and he perceives mills as being out of sync with customers.

“As it is with all the mills, they are trying to push the pricing uphill in a very moderate market with lead-times that are for the most part normal. I think they are trying to convince buyers that the market is trending up, but I don’t think the buyers are convinced,” the Midwest source said.

“Cliffs is just ridiculous. They obviously do not want to sell spot tons or they would not be at such a ludicrous number. Customers already feel no urgency to make purchases beyond what they need here and now,” he added.

Cleveland-Cliffs on Monday announced that it would see $950 per short ton for HR with the opening of its July order book.

A different Midwest distributor thinks the market is still too skeptical to accept the mill hikes.

“The steel industries in general have a problem with this market. The uncertainty of tariffs and the supply-chain challenges are not helping the mills establish prices, especially when the backlog is very slim,” he says. Adding, “Our customers and suppliers both have concerns about the immediate future. I think it will be another two quarters before we can plan our steel buys. Until then, we only buy what we need for orders in hand.”

Price Increases

On Monday, Nucor raised the base price of hot-rolled steel coil prices to $900/st in its weekly consumer spot price update. Cleveland-Cliffs increased its monthly spot price to for HR to $950/st.  

Steel Market Update (SMU) assesses the price of HR east of the Rocky Mountains to be $880/st on average. All prices are ex-works, domestic mill, FOB.