North American auto assemblies tumble in July

Recall that the Trump administration first imposed a 25% tariff on all imported light vehicles in April. By May, the same 25% duty applied to auto parts.

Spring buying surged as a result. It front-loaded consumer demand. That momentum has now tapered, cooling demand. Those same tariffs are straining North American auto production — driving up costs and disrupting cross-border supply chains.

North American vehicle production, including personal and commercial vehicles, totaled 1.088 million units in July, down more than 16% from June’s 1.303 million units but up 2.4% from the 1.063 million units produced a year earlier.

Figure 1 below provides a five-year snapshot of North American light-vehicle production since 2020 on a rolling 12-month basis with a y/y growth rate. Also included is a five-year snapshot of average monthly production, which includes seasonality since 2016.

A short-term snapshot of assembly by nation and vehicle type is shown in the table below. It breaks down total North American personal and commercial vehicle production into US, Canadian, and Mexican components. It also includes the three- and 12-month growth rates for each and their momentum change.

For the three months and 12 months through July, the growth rate for total personal production in the USMCA region saw some improvement, moving ahead in the near term. Commercial production has seen some growth, though only marginal, as output lags year-ago levels.

Personal vehicle production

The longer-term picture of personal vehicle production across North America is shown below. The charts in Figure 2 show the total personal vehicle production for North America and the total for the US, Canada, and Mexico.

In terms of personal vehicle production, this segment saw a 15.3% month-over-month (m/m) drop in July. Assemblies last month totaled 812,324 units, down from 959,505 units in June. But that’s still about 1% above a year earlier.

The US saw a 13.3% m/m production drop, with 80,908 fewer units in July. Mexico fell and Canada also fell notably, producing 50,097 (-19.3%) and 16,176 (-17.9%) fewer units, respectively.

Production share across North America was little changed. The US’ personal vehicle production share of the North American market was 64.5%, followed by Mexico and Canada at 26.1% and 9.4%, respectively.

Commercial vehicle production

Total commercial vehicle production in North America and the total for each nation within the region are shown in the first chart in Figure 3 on a rolling three-month basis. Commercial vehicle production in the US and Mexico, as well as their y/y growth rates and the production share for each nation in North America, are also shown.

North American commercial vehicle production was also down in July. The region saw a 19.6% m/m decline, with a total of 276,095 units, down from 343,209 in June. July’s output was also still 6.9% above last year.

The US saw a 17.1% m/m dip, with 39,991 fewer commercial vehicles assembled in July. Mexico saw a 23% cut (-22,291 units), while Canada was down 41.8% (-4,732 units).

The market share across the region was also largely unchanged in June. The US total share was 68.6%, followed by Mexico with 28.2% and Canada with 3.2%.

Mexico exports roughly 85% of its light-vehicle production, with the US and Canada as the highest-volume destinations.

Editor’s note

This report is based on data from GlobalData for automotive assemblies in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles with less than 6.0 metric tons gross vehicle weight rating; heavy trucks and buses are not included).