SMU Survey: Sentiment inches up from low levels

Every two weeks, SMU polls steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. Their responses form our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics tracked since 2008.

Current Sentiment 

The Current Sentiment Index rose two points this week to +30 (Figure 1). Just two weeks ago it reached the lowest reading since May 2020 (+28). Sentiment has generally trended lower since March, consistently matching or falling short of year-ago levels since then. Sentiment has averaged +42 across the first nine months of the year, down five points from the same period of 2024. This time last year it was considerably higher at +48.

Future Sentiment

Future Sentiment edged up for the third straight survey, rising one point this week to +52 (Figure 2). Future Sentiment readings have also remained at or below 2024 levels since March. It has averaged +56 so far this year, down from +64 in the first nine months of 2024. This time last year, it was at one of the highest levels of the year (+72).

What respondents are saying:

“Unless trade tariffs on steel and aluminum are reduced, it will be very difficult to be successful in this market.”

“We’re slower, but we seem to manage to always do well thanks largely to buying right.”

“The demand environment is weak, and customer buying is down.”

“Hopefully in 3+ months, we’ll see more declines in mill pricing along with a rate cut or two to spur some spending.”

“Uncertainty is the wild card.”

“Plate projects will soon begin climbing in the positive direction.”

Sentiment trends

Sentiment indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term swings.

The Current Sentiment 3MMA registered +32.86 this week, a hair higher the five-year low of +32.81 seen two weeks prior (Figure 3, left). Recall that back in April the 3MMA had reached a nine-month high of +53.97 after trending upwards since the beginning of the year.

The Future Sentiment 3MMA marginally improved for the third survey in a row this week, rising to a 14-week high of +52.19. Compare this to the late June 3MMA of +50.11, which was the lowest measure seen in almost five years (Figure 3, right).

About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.