Hot-rolled market participants say 'doldrums' to roll on through year-end

Market commentary

A salesperson for a large national supply center said the week doesn’t appear to have the same “giddy-up” as he’s seen in the past. He says that likely this has to do in part with the panic purchases made by consumers upon the tariff news earlier in the year.  

“It’s just slow. September is off to a better start than August. But August was my worst month in two years. I did less than half of my June sales. Each day is a battle.” he said. “One day I work on inquiries, the next day there is nothing.”

He characterized the market as “hot and cold.” 

A Midwestern service center operator agreed. He is not impressed with the current economic climate and does not see an end to the sheet market slog in the immediate future.  

“My original forecast that nothing substantial will happen until the end of the year stills holds. There’s nothing to talk about now except news that none of us wants to rehash,” he said. “We are steady with an opportunity to bid here and there.”  

He also said that mills are willing to negotiate their prices “on an as-needed basis.” 

Meanwhile, a different Midwestern-based market participant in the service sector contends that the business is beginning to take hits on its margins. He noted that inventory is too high and that it’s imperative that the sales team keep pressing on to keep the business moving.  

“Demand is weak and inventory is higher than I want it to be. Pricing is still very soft with HR in the low $40 [hundredweight] range,” he said. “Lead times, for the most part, are 4 weeks for HR and 6 weeks for coated and cold rolled.”  

The participant added, “I doubt mill outages will have much of an impact on lead-times but maybe it will help stabilize pricing.  I think most everyone is just buying what they need to keep the shelves stocked but nothing more.” 

Earlier this week, Nucor held its weekly consumer spot prices to $875 per short ton (st) for the third week.  

Pricing data

SMU assessed this week’s HR coil price at $800/st on average, down $5/st from last week. In the equivalent week of 2024, the average spot price for HR was $685/st. (Find historic prices using the SMU interactive pricing tool here. All prices are ex-works domestic mill, unless otherwise noted.)