SMU Week in Review: Sept. 8-12, 2025

Kristen DiLandro hears the same from players in the hot-rolled sheet market: less post-Labor Day “giddy up” than usual, margin pressure at service centers, and mills negotiating “as needed.”

Nucor kept HRC at $875/st for the third week and held plate prices steady for a seventh month.

Scrap sets the tone

Stephen Miller and Ethan Bernard track a split September scrap trade: busheling down $20/gt, and shredded and HMS sideways. The HRC-prime spread narrowed slightly as both products eased, suggesting any widening ahead might come from higher steel, not cheaper feed.

Longer term, prime scrap tightness is still coming with EAF buildouts, according to Miller, but optimization and ore-based metallics are buying time for mills today.

Supply tightens, demand is x-factor

Fall maintenance outages and U.S. Steel’s move to halt slab conversion at Granite City tighten domestic availability. Imports tumbled in July and again in August, with several flat-rolled products at multi-year lows. Still, apparent steel supply remained elevated in July.

AISI data shows raw steel output ticking up. Great Lakes iron ore shipments, meanwhile, are down from last year.

Plate and sheet buyers agree that a Fed interest rate cut could unlock projects, restocking, and steadier pricing.

The Dodge Momentum Index rose again in August, with data centers, warehouses, and hotels leading, hinting at demand in the pipeline.

Trade and tariffs

In this week’s trade column, Wiley attorneys discuss the Federal Circuit’s striking down of President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, which will now go to the Supreme Court for review. They also touch on the Justice Department’s enhanced trade enforcement.

Most steel buyers in SMU’s survey report tariffs are raising costs and muting activity, with limited evidence of reshoring so far.

David Schollaert’s weekly import parity analysis shows some Asian hot band is still theoretically competitive even under the 50% S232 tariff, but European product is definitely not.

Mexico is considering steep tariffs – 35% on steel and up to 50% on autos – to align more closely with US policy and perhaps strengthen “Fortress North America” ahead of next year’s USMCA review.

Also reported this week

ArcelorMittal Mexico partially restarted DRI production just weeks after an August blast. It’s leaning on sister mills in the US and Brazil for HBI and slab sourcing to keep HRC running.

SMU confirmed U.S. Steel will stop processing steel at its Granite City Works. The United Steelworkers union has asked the steelmaker for more details about its plans amid confusing reports.

We published a recap of ITR Economics’ talk at the SMU Steel Summit two weeks ago. Taylor St. Germain urged leaders to prepare for near-term growth but to brace for margin-squeezing headwinds in the 2030s.

Tamara Lundgren stepped down after 17 years as CEO of Radius Recycling as part of its transition to Toyota Tsusho ownership.