SMU Survey: Sheet lead times inch up, plate moves lower

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our early-September market check, two of our lead time ranges shifted this week. The shortest cold rolled and galvanized lead time considered increased from four weeks to five.

Most buyers foresee stability, some expect extensions

Over half of buyers (61%) expect lead times to hold steady through the next two months, in line with our most recent two surveys. Of the remainder, 30% foresee longer lead times in the near future, a rate that has steadily grown across the last few months. The remaining 9% anticipate contractions, similar to previous expectations.

Here are some of the comments we collected:

“Lead times have been very short, mills will start to hold the line in the winter months to start setting up for better Q1 ’26 contract mechanism pricing.”

“I feel in early November we will see more buying as companies replenish some stock for 2026.”

“Remaining too short to really get any buyers nervous.”

“I see them extending in the near term, but eventually normalizing and flattening out.”

“After extending, they will go flat.”

“Sideways, I see little reason for business to pick up much right now.”

Trends

To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). Three of our four sheet product 3MMAs slightly increased this week, reversing a nine-survey trend of being steady to down. The 3MMA for cold-rolled held stable, while plate edged lower.

Average lead times by product across the last three months were: hot rolled at 4.5 weeks, cold rolled at 6.3 weeks, galvanized at 6.2 weeks, Galvalume at 6.3 weeks, and plate at 5.3 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.