SMU Week in Review: Sept. 15 -19

SMU’s hot-rolled coil price slipped to $785 per short ton (st) as of Tuesday, Sept. 16. That’s off $15 per short ton (st) from the previous week. This puts HR tags at their lowest level since mid-February, back before President Trump’s blanket Section 232 tariffs were reimposed. Our price momentum indicator for HR steel remains at lower, meaning we expect prices to decline over the next 30 days.

For galv, half of the participants on this month’s Heating Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) Sheet Metal/Air Handling Council call anticipate galvanized steel base prices to remain flat at ~$48 per hundredweight ($960/short ton) for the next 30 days. A survey of participants showed that 35% of respondents see prices rising more than $2/cwt, while 15% expect tags will drop by more than $2/cwt in the same time period.

Survey

Negotiation rates fell for all products SMU tracks in our latest survey. Galvanized and plate notched the biggest declines. They each fell 23 percentage points to 77% and 63%, respectively, of respondents saying mills are willing to negotiate prices on spot orders.

For lead times, sheet and plate moved in opposing directions, with sheet ticking up and plate drifting lower. The average lead time for HRC is 4.6 weeks, up 0.1 week from two weeks earlier. Plate is 5.1 weeks, down 0.2 weeks from the previous survey.

Finally, our Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions as well. Current Sentiment rose eight points this week to +38 vs. our previous survey. Meanwhile, Future Sentiment fell two points to +50.

Scrap

Opinions are split on the direction of the October scrap market, often varying by region. Forecasts range from sideways to marginally down to much more weakness. However, no one is predicting that prices will rise next month.

In the ferrous scrap export market, there are signs of near-term weakness. In North America, ferrous scrap was being lightly traded on the export front. Still, prices remained firm, floating in the range of $345-347 per metric ton CFR.

Guidance

Nucor and Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) had different takes on Q3’25 as each released their earnings guidance this week for the quarter.

SDI expects Q3’25 earnings of $2.60-$2.64 per diluted share, up from $2.01 in Q2’25 and $2.05 a year ago. At the same time, the steelmaker said all three operating segments are tracking higher, SDI said in earnings guidance released on Monday.

Nucor, however, guided to lower earnings sequentially, though higher than a year earlier. The company reported Q3’25 earnings guidance on Wednesday to be in the range of $2.05 to $2.15 per diluted share. That’s off from $2.60 in Q2’25 but up from $1.05 in the same year-ago period. The steelmaker anticipates lower sequential earnings across all three of its operating segments.

In other news

Steel returns to Sparrows Point – JD Fields HDM Spiralweld Mill is planting roots at Tradepoint Atlantic, the former Sparrows Point site outside of Baltimore, with a 200,000-square-foot pipe pile fabrication center.

Hyundai still on for Louisiana mill – Hyundai reaffirmed its commitment to build a steel plant in Louisiana following a US government immigration raid at its battery facility in Georgia. Doubts had been raised about South Korean investment in the US following the raid.

Hybar CEO interview: Hybar’s Osceola, Ark., rebar mill has begun melting scrap after a 6-8 week delay. The production forecast for 2025 was lowered to 150,000 st. But long-term annual capacity estimated at 630k-700k st, Hybar CEO Dave Stickler told SMU.