Ferrous scrap export market activity sizzles

Will there be more bookings? The answer, of course, is yes. The question is, at what price?

After this amount of buying at basically sideways prices from Europe, it’s likely the scrap market will tighten as we head into the last month of the year for scrap deliveries. Nevertheless, Turkish bids are said to be sub-$345/mt. There have been no takers at this point.  

US suppliers are seeking prices higher than $350, noting a sale made by a large US supplier at $353/mt CFR last week. But bids have been heard at less the $350/mt.

If the steelmakers in Turkey continue to need deep sea scrap, they may have to turn to the US and Canada for it considering the recent buys made in Europe. This could result in increased pricing, especially with HMS trading sideways in the US during October and probably no worse than this in November.

However, there are some headwinds for higher Turkish import prices. During September, Chinese exports of billets to Turkey had dropped off according to China Customs (GACC).

The overall exportation of Chinese steel billets totaled 1.49 million mt, which was a 15% decline from August. Exports to Turkey declined by 210,000 MT and 150,000 mt to Italy. 

The price of Chinese billets lately has come down to fairly workable levels and at least one 50,000-mt cargo has been booked. This new development could temper the need to source more expensive cargoes from Europe and North America, or allow Turkey to be able to buy cheaper. However, it remains to be seen how much this will affect scrap.

On the US West Coast, the container market for HMS 80/20 into Taiwan remains below $300/mt CFR and is pegged at $293. Most suppliers have not accepted this pricing level yet. The bulk markets in SE Asia and Southern Asia remain sparce but there has been activity from the Pacific Coast of South and Central America, according to export sources.