Possible sideways move for ferrous scrap prices in November?

One source in the Western Pennsylvania/Ohio districts said scrap market chatter is the quietest he can recall.

He said scrap flows are “nothing great.”

“The only thing a consumer should have no trouble buying is busheling,” he added.

In his district, he noted two major buyers are coming back from outages.

However, he said another large buyer in Ohio who bought heavily in October has signaled their November program will be much less and they may not buy at all in December. In Canada, he heard some mills may not buy at all, but at least two others will have regular programs.

SMU spoke with a scrap executive in the Southeast who characterized the November market as sideways.

He said flows of secondary grades are off roughly 10% after the scrap price dropped last month. The executive also said demand for scrap is good in his region. He believes mills are concerned about being able to secure enough scrap since November is a short month in terms of shipping days. Therefore, steelmakers should be ready to buy at sideways pricing.

A scrap executive at a major steelmaker in the Detroit/Chicago region also agreed with sideways pricing for November. He said demand will be off due the outages.

However, he said scrap flows are not abundant enough to drop prices anymore. The Midwest executive thinks mills are being strategic on scrap by keep prices mainly even in October and November, rather than slashing them like last year and paying up numbers in January.

This source went on to say he expects quick settlements at sideways pricing for all grades in November and perhaps December, adding he sees 2026 as a strong year for steel.      

Meanwhile, a West Coast source told SMU scrap from this region has a good chance of heading eastward due to the limited export opportunities in the Far East and South America. However, this should not weaken the scrap markets in the East and Southeast districts.