Analysis
November 22, 2025
Global steel production ticked higher in October
Written by Brett Linton
Following four consecutive monthly declines, world crude steel output recovered 1% from September to October to an estimated 143.3 million metric tons (mt), according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel). This comes just one month after production touched a 21-month low of 142.3 million mt. Recall that global output reached a two-year high of 166.5 million mt in March.
On a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis, annual production has averaged 150.8 million mt per month over the last year, down 1% from the same period one year prior (Figure 1). Up until last month, annual output had generally hovered between 152 million to 154 million mt over the past three years, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
The daily production rate across October fell to a 22-month low of 4.62 million mt per day, down 3% month over month (m/m). Over the last year, daily production was as high as 5.37 million mt in March. At October’s rate, annualized global production would total approximately 1.69 billion mt (Figure 2).
Seasonal trends
Steel production is highly seasonal, with output typically strongest in the spring months and weaker in the second half of the year. Annual comparisons can help see past seasonal variations. Figure 3 shows the year-over-year (y/y) growth rates for total global production, as well as for China and the rest of the world (ROW) grouped together.
October output was 6% lower than the same month of 2024, the second-consecutive month with negative annual growth. ROW production saw growth for the fifth month in a row (up 1% y/y). The annual growth rate for China was negative for the seventh-straight month at -12%, the lowest rate recorded since December 2023.
Regional breakdown
China accounted for 50% of global production in October, producing 72.0 million mt (Figure 4). This volume is down 2% from September and the lowest production rate since December 2023. Chinese output has averaged 81.0 million mt per month across the past year. Since 2023, China has consistently accounted for 50-57% of total global production.
ROW steel output rose to a five-month high of 71.3 million mt in October, up 4% from September. ROW production has averaged 69.7 million mt per month over the past year.
Top producing countries
India maintained its position as the second-largest steel producer in October, producing 9% of the global total. Other significant producers included the United States and Japan at 5% each, Russia and South Korea at 4%, and Iran, Turkey, Germany, and Brazil at 2%.
Comparing year-to-date (YTD) output by country to the same period of 2024 reveals modest shifts in market share. In the first ten months of 2025, German production was down 10% from the same time frame last year. Russia declined 5%. China, South Korea, and Japan each fell 4%. India was the outlier, with YTD production up 10%.
