Market Data
December 17, 2025
Apparent steel supply remains strong through September
Written by Brett Linton
The volume of finished steel entering the US market grew in September, driven primarily by higher domestic mill shipments, according to SMU’s analysis of US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. This “apparent steel supply” metric is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments with finished US steel imports then subtracting total US exports.
September supply increased 1%, or 94,000 short tons (st), from August to 8.64 million st and was 7% higher than the same month one year prior. Strong domestic shipments were the primary contributor to supply this month, more than compensating for the decline in finished imports. September supply is about 110,000 st higher than the average supply rate seen over the past year.
Supply has fluctuated within a relatively stable range in the last three years, averaging 8.45 million st per month in that time (Figure 1). We saw increased volatility around the turn of the calendar year. Last November, supply fell to a near four-year low of 7.65 million st, then rebounded in January to a two-and-a-half year high of 8.98 million st. For comparison, the highest measure recorded in our 15-year data history was 10.90 million st in 2014 and the lowest was 6.52 million st in mid-2020.
Trends
Supply can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) to better highlight trends by smoothing out monthly fluctuations (Figure 2). On this basis, supply dipped to a four-year low of 7.93 million st last November, then recovered through July to reach a near three-year high of 8.82 million st. The 3MMA has marginally declined each of the last two months, easing to 8.68 million st through September, but holding historically strong relative to post-Covid levels.
Figure 3 shows the individual components of apparent supply and their changes from August to September:
- Domestic shipments increased 3% (270,000 st) to a four-year high of 8.03 million st, accounting for 93% of total supply. (October figures were released earlier this month, showing a 4% reduction.)
- Finished steel imports slipped 16% (227,000 st) to a five-year low of 1.20 million st. (The latest license data shows a potential 4% recovery in October, then 6% decline in November.)
- Steel exports declined 8% (51,000 st) to 594,000 st, the third-lowest monthly export rate seen in over five years.
- Net imports (finished imports minus exports) made up 7% of September’s supply. This is the lowest share recorded since January 2021.
To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
