Final Thoughts: Register for Tampa Steel today!

SMU’s Tampa Steel Conference is much more than an escape into the Florida sunshine from the bitter bite of winter.

Hundreds of companies. A veritable who’s who of the flat-rolled steel industry, and you can rub shoulders with them. Heck, you probably are them. Panels on topics hotter than a blast furnace. Fireside chats so cozy you’ll want a cup of hot cocoa. (The agenda is here.) Vendor booths. Prizes. And for dinner, you can get a great piece of fish.

You would think that would be enough. But no. There’s more.

Last year, actual news broke while we were at Tampa. Call it a February surprise. In the midst of the conference, we learned Canada would get a 30-day reprieve from 25% tariffs on exports to the US after agreeing to combat fentanyl at the border. Recall that was before “Liberation Day” in April. Let’s just say since then there have been a few tariffs under the bridge.

Still, surrounded by the best minds in the industry is a great place to be when market news breaks. You can tug on someone’s shoulder to get savvy advice, take a general read on reactions, or – if the news is just plain bad – find a few buddies to go out with and get another great piece of fish.

So, what could happen? Even with our famed CRU AI tool ORAC, we still don’t have a crystal ball. What might occur is anyone’s guess. But if the last year has been any indication, there is a good chance it could be a curveball.

In that spirit, here are a couple curveball situations to watch out for. Sure, they’re unlikely, perhaps even impossible. But it’s always good to be prepared.

Wheel of Tariff

Some have complained the rollout of the Trump administration’s tariffs has been haphazard. Late-night Truth Social posts, last-minute reprieves… we’re always one executive order away from a completely different playing field.

Well, to combat that perception, things will get a lot more regular and ordered: in the form of a weekly gameshow.

A spinning wheel will have all the usual suspects listed on it: Section 232 at 25%, Section 232 at 50%, Section 232 at 100%, a wild card exception for Brazilian pig iron, and a USMCA joker where all tariffs will magically drop to zero in North America. Those are just a few examples. It will be real nail biter, but at least some weekly stability will be brought back to the system.

The only question you need to ask your purchasing team: Are you going to buy a vowel?

Super Center of America

We recently learned of the merger between national service chains Olympic and Ryerson. And Worthington Steel has confirmed it’s in talks to acquire Germany’s Klöckner & Co. SE. But nothing has been decided yet.

Indeed, one of the perennial questions at the Tampa Conference’s service center panel is, “Will there be more consolidation in the service center space?”

The answer, of course, turns out to be a resounding “yes!” But, now this is where it gets interesting, we’re talking mega mergers, a Marvel-sized merger, or maybe better to say DC. That is, all the service centers in the US unite into a single entity: The Super Center of America. Their mission: to process and distribute steel, and fight crime.

In a relentless pursuit of truth, justice, the American way – and slitting – they will battle unfair trade practices and make commerce safe again. Is there a chance they could even bring back demand?

No, they didn’t ask to be a hero; they only asked for a fair price on HRC.

It’s almost time

With these kinds of scenarios in the mix, don’t you want to be in the best possible place when news breaks?

The conference is at the JW Marriott Tampa Water Street from Wednesday, Feb. 11, through Friday, Feb. 13. You still have time to register here, but don’t let time run out. We can’t wait to see all of you there!

Disclaimer

The scenarios above are for humorous purposes only. They do not constitute forecasts of actual events. However, if by some strange twist of fate one or both happen to come true, we hope you will at least treat us to a nice fish dinner.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.